Box Office Predictions?

[Woodsprite]

Avatar has been doing fantastically well, and it's not based on anything, not a spin-off, no franchise, nothing. It did it on its own and crossed the 2 billion mark. The reasons were word-of-mouth and repetitive viewings (like "Titanic").

...But what of Avatar 2? Do you think it may be possible for it to beat Avatar's box office record? The same happened with "New Moon" in the Twilight series, yet many thought it was terrible. Did that stop it from making money? No. So if Avatar 2 is acclaimed as a wonderful film (possibly better than the first), do you believe it could top Avatar's record?

Discuss. :)

[spicyapple]

My prediction for A2: $1.5 billion.

[DreamWalks]

I think it shall, for most people who will not see AVATAR in theatres now, might buy/rent the DVD and be hooked, which will call for an even higher demand than the original group(us), for the second/third film. Hopefully the second doesn't disappoint.

[Davebwing]

I think it shall, for most people who will not see AVATAR in theatres now, might buy/rent the DVD and be hooked, which will call for an even higher demand than the original group(us), for the second/third film. Hopefully the second doesn't disappoint.

That's the scary part, even with the mind boggling revenues this Avatar movies keeps rolling up we haven't seen the absolutely insane response that will happen when this flick hits the retail market, pay per view and cable/sateliite. Millions of people who wouldn't or couldn't go the theater to see it will...

[LOGAN]

I don't want to ruined the mood but I don't think Avatar 2 will surpass the first.
Avatar had the momentum of a "never seen before" movie, groundbreaking technology and surreal visual effect. Sure the second will have all of those but we know what it looks like now.
It will make a bigger opening WE, all the fan will be waiting for it, but unless it's way over the first (I hope !!) it won't do more money. IMHO

don't worry I'm sure I'll go see it multiple times ! :P

[Keye'ung]

http://www.avatar-forums.com/images/imported/2010/02/23.jpg

avatar trilogy will make this much

[Cap]

I don't want to ruined the mood but I don't think Avatar 2 will surpass the first.
Avatar had the momentum of a "never seen before" movie, groundbreaking technology and surreal visual effect. Sure the second will have all of those but we know what it looks like now.
It will make a bigger opening WE, all the fan will be waiting for it, but unless it's way over the first (I hope !!) it won't do more money. IMHO

don't worry I'm sure I'll go see it multiple times ! :P

With the profit James Cameron made on Avatar he will be able to double the budget for the sequel if he wants. They said the technology is groundbreaking, but I think there is still a lot of room for improvement. Don't you think with even the huge budget he had for the first movie, that there were still limitations for him? Some scenes still don't look realistic, there is blurriness when the camera was panning, and also how the 3D glasses have a black tint so the movie appears darker.

[Gavran]

I think avatar 2 will set one record that Avatar did not. Opening weekend record:) Every man and his dog will be wanting to see that as soon as it comes out

[TheANIMAL]

It wont earn as much as Avatar 1, simply because the wow factor cannot match Avatar 1, even if the film is superior the visual style will already be well known.

Also people's expectations will be too high me thinks.

[Cap]

Transformers 2 did better than Transformers 1?

[Inny Binny]

I would have said lower in most circumstances, for the same reason that Star Wars saw a drop, even though Empire Strikes Back is considered the pinnacle of the series.

However, there is going to be such a rapid expansion of 3D theatres that there will be at least twice as many domestically, and who knows how many times more overseas. This will ameliorate a drop, and even better - the degree to which 3D will be expansing across the globe could possible give Avatar 2 an increase over Avatar.

There is one more factor for a worldwide increase. Emerging markets, such as Russia and China, are only just starting to see good sized grosses. And they are accelerating at a ridiculous pace. Avatar's $100m in Russia could be equivalent to $200m in 4 years' time, simply due to such a huge market expansion. This will affect all movies, not just Avatar.

So, for the above reasons, I think Avatar will increase. I assume Avatar will make $750m domestically and $2.25b overseas, for $3b worldwide. So, these are my predictions for Avatar 2:

DOM OW: $190m
DOM total: $825m (+10% over Avatar)

OS OW: $610m
OS total: $3.175b (+ 41% over Avatar)

WW OW: $800m
WW total: $4b (+33% over Avatar)

[superpidrooo]

I think AVATAR 2 will not pass the top of the first movie, that is now $2,240,712,214
but I´d like to be wrong :) I´ll be waiting since the first day to see it

[Zurom]

Let me shed some light on this topic.

Before you speculate on how Avatar 2 is going to compare to its first. You must remember who we're talking about here; James Cameron. If you recall, he has two of the best sequels ever made!

-Terminator 2: Judgement Day
-Aliens

I like to bring this point to the table when people are skeptical towards Avatar 2 because it changes their mind completely.

As far as Avatar 2's box-office performance, it will undoubtedly shatter most/all opening records. Overall, I can see it breaking the following records with ease:
Opening Weekend - Domestic
Opening Weekend - Foreign
Opening Weekend - Worldwide
Which ever month it's released in
Everyday of the week
First 10 day gross
Fastest to $100 million
Fastest to $150 million
Fastest to $200 million
Fastest to $250 million
Fastest to $300 million
Fastest to $350 million
Fastest to $400 million
Fastest to $450 million

[last shadow]

Let me shed some light on this topic.

Before you speculate on how Avatar 2 is going to compare to its first. You must remember who we're talking about here; James Cameron. If you recall, he has two of the best sequels ever made!

-Terminator 2: Judgement Day
-Aliens

I like to bring this point to the table when people are skeptical towards Avatar 2 because it changes their mind completely.

As far as Avatar 2's box-office performance, it will undoubtedly shatter most/all opening records. Overall, I can see it breaking the following records with ease:
Opening Weekend - Domestic
Opening Weekend - Foreign
Opening Weekend - Worldwide
Which ever month it's released in
Everyday of the week
First 10 day gross
Fastest to $100 million
Fastest to $150 million
Fastest to $200 million
Fastest to $250 million
Fastest to $300 million
Fastest to $350 million
Fastest to $400 million
Fastest to $450 million


I like this hypothesis

[nimbleVagrant]

As far as AVATAR II's domestic opening weekend, I could see $210 million. Theatres will be upgrading their projectors for this film and running screens around the clock to keep up with initial demand. It will be playing on at least 5000 screens. It will be insanely huge. I can't wait.

[chawk1993]

If its as good as the first it will score high. Even get an Oscar or two maybe?

[W0LFMAN]

My guess for Avatar 2 is around $2.8b - $3b worldwide.

[nordrassil]

I'm sure it will be an unusual success, like above 1.5 billion, but I don't think it will pass first Avatar. And it doesn't need to. This movie made so much money that even if sequels don't make something close, the trilogy will be a huge overall success.